Transition Plan to Sustainable Post-Fossil Energy

Andrii Zvorygin yN-PH2196 mtH2a1* & GPT4
from Owen Sound,
attender of Glad Tidings Fellowship, Tara, ON

December 14, 2023

*https://anabaptist.ca https://x.com/aizvo

Contents

 1 Foundation
 2 Family Level
 3 Community Level
  3.1 Electricity Requirements:
  3.2 Total Daily Consumption:
  3.3 Estimated Mineral Quantities
  3.4 Total Mineral Quantities
 4 Village (Around 360):
  4.1 Village Building Design:
  4.2 Heating and Cooling:
  4.3 Electronic Requirements:
  4.4 Gravel Roads Maintenance:
  4.5 Internet Connectivity
  4.6 Renewable Energy Sources
  4.7 Water Supply
  4.8 Sanitation
  4.9 Village Transportation
  4.10 Energy Summary
  4.11 Mineral Requirements
  4.12 Waste Management
  4.13 Humanure Biogas Facility
 5 Higher levels
  5.1 Neighbourhood/Microrayon (Around 5,040):
  5.2 City (Around 55,440):
  5.3 County/Graff/Raion (Around to 720,720):
  5.4 Province/Oblast (Around 4,324,320):
  5.5 Country (Around 21,621,600):
  5.6 Union (Around 367,567,200):
  5.7 Continental (Around 6,983,776,800 or a continent/subcontinent)
  5.8 Planetary Organization:

1 Foundation

The foundation is a basic right to land or some land-distribution scheme, where each person is able to have enough land to grow their own food and firewood. For simplicity we will assume this is an area with 6 months growing season, and at least 500mm annual rainfall, so 1 global hectare will suffice to meet all food and firewood needs for 1 perosn, or roughly 24Gj of energy per hectare be that food or firewood.

2 Family Level

PIC

A single person can’t live sustainably on their own, as they may get sick or hurt, and will need care. So a family is a more logical unit. Using Superior Highly Composite Numbers (SHCN) we will assume a family or a team of 6 people, which could be parents, children, and grandparents, or some other combination of people.

It is presumed that the bulk of residential buildings are made with local materials using manual labour, so are not included in energy/mineral requirements.

daily energy usage might be:

For a month, this would equate to roughly 86.25 kWh. Again, these are estimates and actual usage could vary. It’s also important to note that desktops may not be used every day, or for the full duration estimated here, which would affect the overall energy consumption. Additionally, if the desktop is used for more intensive tasks, the energy consumption could be higher than estimated.

In summary, for a system designed to provide 3 kWh per day on average, you might consider:

It’s crucial to get a local solar professional to conduct a detailed assessment, as they can provide the most accurate system sizing based on your specific location and needs.

Summary of Mineral Estimates:

for the appliances

Metals and Other Elements:

Approximate Totals:

for wiring:

To give you a very rough estimate for the entire solar panels + batteries + inverter setup:

3 Community Level

PIC

A family can’t really be sustainable on it’s own, and is best part of a group, which averages about 50-60 people for maximum social cohesion and economies of scale. Can have a building for gathering together, but it would be made from locally sourced materials. Can also have a bell for an audible announcment to the local area that there is an event or an important announcmenet. As well there would be 5-10Watt radio station to broadcast to the meetings and announcments. Otherwise the community could have fiber optic internet.

For a community church service including a desktop computer, projector, speakers, LED lights, a 10W FM transmitter, microphones, and a router for a local fiber optic network, here’s an estimate of the minimum electricity requirements and the solar or wind setup needed to maintain it. We’ll also consider the energy storage required for reliability through variable conditions.

In terms of transporation each community could have a horse, oxen or two, or equivalent beasts of burden, for use in the community, and possibly contributing to the village horse/oxen team - notably each bovine/equine needs about as much land per capita as a human. Otherwise residents could walk or bike.

3.1 Electricity Requirements:

3.2 Total Daily Consumption:

The total daily energy consumption with the addition of a laser printer would be approximately 4.253 kWh/day. Revised Solar/Wind Setup:

To meet a daily requirement of 4.253 kWh and assuming an average of 4 peak sun hours:

3.3 Estimated Mineral Quantities

3.4 Total Mineral Quantities

4 Village (Around 360):

PIC

1.
Council comprises 6 commune leaders and elect a village leader from amongst themselves.
2.
Local Governance: Addressing immediate local concerns and providing basic public services.
3.
Basic Infrastructure: Maintenance of local roads, public spaces.
4.
Village FM/VHF Radio: in the 10W range may suffice for village broadcasts, especially of village meetings.
5.
Village Radio Network: Can co-ordinate with commune UHF radios to repeat important public broadcasts such as village meetings.
6.
Public Welfare: Establishing and maintaining communal facilities like granaries, for supporting member communes.
7.
Postal Station: could have a basic post office for mail dropoff and pickup.
8.
Transportation: mainteance of a village van for drop
9.
Biogas facility: to make Bio-CNG for the local van, forge and-or kiln.
10.
Education: Establishing and maintaining primary schools.
11.
Cultural Activities: Organizing local festivals, events, and promoting local traditions and crafts.
12.
The village leader represents the village at the next organizational level.

For a village of 360 people, creating a multi-purpose village building using local materials is a practical and sustainable approach. Here’s a detailed analysis of the requirements and considerations for such a building:

4.1 Village Building Design:

1.
**Assembly Hall**:
2.
**Classrooms (for a school)**:
3.
**Council Meeting Room**:
4.
**Attached Granary**:

4.2 Heating and Cooling:

4.3 Electronic Requirements:

1.
1. **Lighting**:
2.
2. **Radio Transmitter**:
3.
3. **Computers**:

4.4 Gravel Roads Maintenance:

4.5 Internet Connectivity

Fiber Optic Network: High-speed and reliable internet connectivity is essential for modern communities. Connecting to community hubs will ensure efficient information flow and connectivity.

4.6 Renewable Energy Sources

Wind and Solar Power: A combination of these sources can provide a reliable and sustainable energy supply. The specifics will depend on local climate conditions and geographical features.

4.7 Water Supply

Cistern or Well: Both are viable options. A cistern can collect and store rainwater, while a well provides access to groundwater. Water Pump: Essential for both options to ensure a steady water supply to the building. Solar-powered pumps can be an efficient choice.

4.8 Sanitation

4.9 Village Transportation

For a village setting, especially one prioritizing sustainability, consider the following:

4.10 Energy Summary

To create an energy usage summary for the described facilities and estimate the renewable energy (solar and wind) requirements and battery backup, let’s break down the energy needs for each component and space:

Electronic Requirements

Lighting:

Radio Transmitter:

Computers:

Village Building Design

The village building design includes an Assembly Hall, Classrooms, a Council Meeting Room, and an Attached Granary. The specific energy needs for these spaces will depend on their usage and equipment. Energy Consumption Calculation

The total daily energy consumption for lighting and electronics will be calculated. This will inform the requirements for solar-wind energy production and battery backup. Renewable Energy and Battery Backup

Estimated Daily Energy Consumption

Total Daily Energy Requirement

Total: 3.75+0.02+7.2+3.6=14.57 kWh/day3.75+0.02+7.2+3.6=14.57 kWh/day

Renewable Energy and Battery Backup Requirements

This summary provides an overview of the energy needs for the village facility, focusing on electronic requirements and excluding climate control, and assists in planning for the necessary renewable energy infrastructure and battery backup capacity.

4.11 Mineral Requirements

To estimate the number of solar panels or wind turbines needed for a village facility with a daily energy consumption of 14.57 kWh, and to assess the mineral requirements for different types of batteries, we need to consider several factors:

Solar Panels

1.
1. **Average Solar Panel Output**: A typical residential solar panel has a power output of around 250 to 400 watts under optimal conditions.
2.
2. **Daily Energy Production**: Assuming an average of 5 peak sun hours per day, a 300-watt panel produces about 1.5 kWh per day.
3.
3. **Total Panels Required**:
Total Panels =----Daily-Energy Consumption----
             Energy Production per Panel per Day

      34.57 kWh
= 1.5 kWh/panel/day
4.
- **Total Solar Panels Required**: Approximately 10 panels.
5.
- **Solar Panels**: The actual number of panels required can vary based on factors like local sunlight availability, panel efficiency, and potential shading.
6.
- This calculation is based on 300-watt solar panels with an average energy production of 1.5 kWh per day, assuming 5 peak sun hours.

Wind Turbines

1.
1. **Average Wind Turbine Output**: Small wind turbines (suitable for a village setting) can range from 0.5 kW to 10 kW. Let’s consider a 3 kW turbine.
2.
2. **Daily Energy Production**: This varies widely based on location and wind speed. Assuming an average of 5 effective full-power hours per day, a 5 kW turbine would produce 25 kWh per day.
3.
3. **Total Turbines Required**:
                    Daily Energy Consumption
Total Turbines =---------------------------------
               Energy Production per Turbine per Day

=  15 kW1h4/.5t7urkbWihne/day
4.
- **Total Wind Turbines Required**: Approximately 1 turbine.
5.
- This is calculated for a 3 kW turbine with an average of 5 effective full-power hours per day.
6.
- **Wind Turbines**: The effectiveness of wind turbines depends heavily on local wind conditions. The number needed could vary significantly based on average wind speeds and consistency.

The facility would likely require a combination of 10 solar panels or at least 1 wind turbine to meet its energy needs, based on average conditions. The choice of battery type for backup storage will depend on factors like budget, space, lifespan, and environmental impact, with each type having different mineral requirements. This setup can provide a sustainable and reliable energy supply for the village’s needs, aligning with environmental and self-sufficiency goals.

Calculating Battery Capacity Requirements

Iron-Phosphate (LiFePO4) Batteries

Lead-Acid Batteries

Lithium-Ion Batteries

Let’s perform these calculations to estimate the battery weights and get a sense of the mineral requirements for each type. Estimated Battery Weights for 43.71 kWh Storage Capacity Iron-Phosphate (LiFePO4) Batteries

Conclusion

These estimates provide a basis for understanding the trade-offs between different battery types in terms of weight and mineral composition. The choice of battery will depend on factors such as budget, space availability, environmental impact, and the sustainability of sourcing the required minerals.

4.12 Waste Management

4.13 Humanure Biogas Facility

PIC

4.13.1 Introduction

The proposed humanure biogas facility is designed to process organic waste, primarily human feces, from a community of 360 people. The facility converts this waste into valuable bio-CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) and agricultural compost, utilizing anaerobic digestion, gas purification, and compression technologies.

4.13.2 Inputs
1.
Human Feces: The primary input is the fecal matter from 360 people as it needs to be processed to avoid pathogens. Each person produces 0.125kg/day, or 0.896kg/week, per week 360 people produce 322kg. People could drop off their household fecal production (5.37kg) once a week at their community centre (church on Sunday), and the community horse/oxen and buggy could take it to the village processing centre once a week (Monday). Which would be a weekly buggy load of 54kg.
2.
Additional Organic Waste: To optimize gas production, additional organic waste such as food scraps can be included. At up to 0.5kg/day could be up to 1260kg per week. Which for a community of 60 could be up to 210kg and would need multiple trips for a single horse/oxen buggy. Food waste would be optional to contribute as they are easy to compost on site, and many people have less food waste than 0.5kg/day, but is dependent on the village biogas requirements.

4.13.3 Processes and Major Chambers
1.
Anaerobic Digestion Chamber:
2.
Biogas Purification System:
(a)
Water Scrubbing Unit:
  • Function: Removal of carbon dioxide and hydrogen sulfide from biogas.
  • Components: Air compressor, scrubbing column, water circulation system.
(b)
Dehumidification (Refrigeration) Unit:
  • Function: Removal of water vapor from the scrubbed biogas.
  • Components: Refrigeration unit, condensate trap.
3.
Biogas Compression System:

4.13.4 Outputs

4.13.5 Maintenance and Manpower Requirements

To estimate how long it would take for an air compressor to compress 80 cubic meters (m) of air in a week (from 320kg fecal matter), we need to consider the flow rate of the compressor, which is typically measured in cubic feet per minute (CFM) or cubic meters per minute. The flow rate can vary widely based on the size and model of the compressor.

Assumptions

Calculation

Let’s calculate the time it would take to compress 80 m of air per week with our assumed flow rate.

It would take approximately 2.67 hours to compress 80 cubic meters of air per week with an air compressor having a flow rate of 0.5 cubic meters per minute.

This is a relatively short amount of time, suggesting that running the compressor for a few hours each week would be sufficient to meet the needs of the biogas facility. This time can be spread out over the week as needed, depending on the production rate of biogas and the storage capacity.

With the adjusted runtimes of 4 hours per week for each component (air compressor, refrigeration unit, and gas compressor) and using average power ratings, the daily energy consumption for the biogas facility is approximately 5.43 kWh. This leads to a total weekly energy consumption of about 38 kWh (136MJ), if using 35% efficient biogas-to-electricity generator would use 391MJ of Bio-CNG. 1.7GJ/391MJ yields an EROI of 4, not including human and animal power, though would leave 1.3GJ or 36m2 of biogas, enough to fill the van and then some.

Monitoring

Stirring of Digestate

Conclusion

With these adjustments, the biogas facility’s energy requirements become much more manageable and sustainable, potentially allowing for the entire operation to be powered by the biogas produced on-site. The use of animal power for stirring the digestate further enhances the facility’s sustainability profile. This setup makes the facility highly energy-efficient and in harmony with permaculture principles

4.13.6 Sustainability and Safety

4.13.7 Bio-CNG Usage

Using biogas instead of charcoal for certain traditional processes is indeed a sustainable alternative that can conserve wood resources. Traditional charcoal making required 10x as much firewood as charcoal it produces, and led to a lot of deforestation. Let’s focus on industries traditionally reliant on charcoal that could benefit from bio-CNG:

4.13.8 Conclusion

The humanure biogas facility represents a sustainable approach to waste management and energy production for a community of 360 people. By efficiently converting human waste into bio-CNG and compost, the facility can significantly contribute to the community’s energy needs while reducing environmental impact. With a dedicated team for operation and maintenance, and the right technical setup, this facility can be a model for sustainable living and energy independence.

5 Higher levels

5.1 Neighbourhood/Microrayon (Around 5,040):

PIC

1.
Council comprises as many as 14 village leaders and elect a neighbourhood leader from amongst themselves.
2.
Intermediate Governance: Addressing concerns of multiple villages or urban neighborhoods.
3.
Community Service Officer (CSO): serve in a non-sworn (non-badge-carrying) capacity and assist with tasks like traffic control, minor accident reports, and other non-criminal calls for service.
4.
Neighbourhood FM/VHF Radio: in the 100W range may suffice for neighbourhood broadcasts, such as neighbourhood meetings.
5.
Neighbourhood Radio Network: Can co-ordinate with village radio networks;
6.
Education: Establishing and maintaining secondary schools.
7.
Healthcare: Running local clinics or health centers.
8.
Markets: a neighborhood is typically large enough to support a farmers’ market or similar local commerce centers.
9.
The neighbourhood leader represents the neighbourhood at the city level.

5.2 City (Around 55,440):

PIC

1.
Council comprises as many as 11 neighbourhoods and elects a Mayor from amongst themselves.
2.
Urban Planning: Zoning, city development, and infrastructure planning.
3.
Bylaw Enforcement Officer (BEO): known as a code enforcement officer in some places, they enforce municipal bylaws, including animal control, property standards, parking, and other local regulations.
4.
City FM/VHF Radio: in the 1000W range may suffice for city wide broadcasts.
5.
City Radio Network: can co-ordinate with neighbourhood radio networks.
6.
Advanced Healthcare: Hospitals and specialized medical facilities.
7.
Higher Education: Colleges, universities, and vocational training centers.
8.
Utilities: Water supply, sewage, and larger energy projects like hydroelectric or thorium plants to facilitate industrial production.
9.
Public Transport: Buses, trams, and other intra-city transportation. As well as railway access for inter-city transport.
10.
The Mayor represents the city at the regional level.

5.3 County/Graff/Raion (Around to 720,720):

PIC

1.
Comprises as many as 13 cities with a council of 13 mayors and selecting a county leader from amongst themselves.
2.
Regional Planning: Coordination between cities/towns within the region.
3.
Public Safety Officer: Given the diverse environments within counties, officers with training in multiple response capabilities can help maintain public safety across different scenarios.
4.
County AM Radio: AM Radio in the 10-20KW range may suffice for public broadcasts of county meetings, better propogation at night.
5.
County Radio Network: Municipal FM radio stations can be co-ordinated together for county wide broadcasts such as county meetings.
6.
Major Infrastructure: Maintaining transportation (like regional roads, bridges) and the energy grid.
7.
Environmental Protection: Conservation efforts, regional parks, and waste management.
8.
Regional Commerce: Promoting trade and commerce across the region.
9.
The county leader represents the county at the provincial level.

5.4 Province/Oblast (Around 4,324,320):

PIC

1.
Comprises as many as 6 counties, with a council of county leaders and select an Oblast leader from amongst themselves.
2.
Legislation: Enacting laws specific to the oblast.
3.
Provincial Enforcement Officer: This designation would handle provincial laws, regulations, and codes that are not covered by other law enforcement agencies. They might have specializations in areas like environmental enforcement, wildlife conservation, or transportation regulations.
4.
Oblast AM Radio: in the 20-50kW range may suffice for public broadcasts but may need multiple stations, better propogation at night.
5.
Oblast HF Radio: in the 20-100kW range may suffice for public broadcasts, 3-10MHz at night and 10-30MHz in the daytime.
6.
Oblast Radio Network: Consisting of Oblast HF, AM and County Radio Networks can be co-ordinated together for oblast wide broadcasts such as oblast meetings.
7.
Major Infrastructure: Highways, major transportation hubs like airports and train stations.
8.
Land and Property: Maintaining a land distribution registry.
9.
Policing: Handling minor offenses and maintaining oblast police forces.
10.
The oblast leader represents the province at the country level.

5.5 Country (Around 21,621,600):

PIC

1.
Comprises as many as 5 oblasts with oblast leaders being the council and selecting a Country leader from amongst themselves.
2.
Legislation: Enacting national laws and regulations.
3.
National Peace Officer: A more comprehensive role that encompasses the enforcement of national laws and regulations. They would work in conjunction with other specialized enforcement divisions within the country, such as immigration or customs, and might also coordinate with defense forces or intelligence agencies on matters of national security.
4.
Country HF Radio: in the 50-250kW range may suffice for public broadcasts, 3-10MHz at night and 10-30MHz in the daytime.
5.
Country Radio Network: Country HF and Oblast radio networks can be co-ordinated together for country wide broadcasts such as country meetings.
6.
International Relations: Managing foreign policy, international trade, and treaties.
7.
National Defense: Maintaining the armed forces and ensuring national security.
8.
Major Policing: Handling major offenses and potentially having a federal investigative agency.
9.
Currency and Economy: Managing national fiscal and monetary policy.
10.
The Country leader represents the province at the Union level.

5.6 Union (Around 367,567,200):

PIC

1.
Comprises multiple countries, with country leaders being the council and selecting a union leader amongst themselves.
2.
Regional Peacekeeping: Ensuring stability and peace within the union’s member states.
3.
Union Security Officer: Their role would be more about ensuring the stable and peaceful interactions between countries within the union. They might also be responsible for safeguarding union-specific institutions, assets, or events.
4.
Trade and Commerce: Establishing a common market and potentially having a common currency.
5.
Regulation Harmonization: Creating regional standards and regulations.
6.
Joint Research and Development: Collaborative projects focusing on regional challenges in science, technology, and other fields.
7.
Cultural Exchange: Promoting understanding and exchange between the cultures of member states.
8.
Union Broadcasts: Union-wide broadcasts, including translations as needed.
9.
Environmental Initiatives: Joint efforts to address regional environmental challenges.
10.
Joint Infrastructure Projects: Such as regional railways, highways, or energy grids.
11.
Dispute Resolution: Mediating conflicts or disputes between member countries.
12.
The Union leader represents the union at the Planetary level.

5.7 Continental (Around 6,983,776,800 or a continent/subcontinent)

PIC

1.
Can comprise around 17 Unions, potentially spanning a continent with union leaders being the council and selecting a Continental leader amongst themselves.
2.
Continental Peacekeeping: Overseeing large-scale peace initiatives and conflicts that span across unions.
3.
Continental Trade Framework: Establishing guidelines for trade between unions, enhancing economic growth across the continent.
4.
Continental Cultural Events: Organizing large-scale cultural events or festivals showcasing the diversity of the continent.
5.
Continental Infrastructure Projects: Such as continent-spanning communication networks, transportation systems, or pipelines.
6.
Continental Environmental Oversight: Strategies for large-scale environmental concerns affecting multiple unions.
7.
Disaster Preparedness and Response: Coordinating responses to continental-wide natural disasters or other major emergencies.
8.
The Continental leader represents the Continent at the Planetary level.

5.8 Planetary Organization:

PIC

1.
Comprises multiple continents with a council of Continental leaders that select a planetary leader amongst themselves.
2.
Global Peacekeeping: Ensuring global peace and addressing conflicts with worldwide implications.
3.
Global Environmental Initiatives: Addressing challenges like climate change, biodiversity loss, and ocean health.
4.
Space Exploration: Coordinating efforts for satellites, space exploration, colonization, and interstellar relations.
5.
Global Health Initiatives: Addressing pandemics and other health crises affecting humanity at large.
6.
World Trade Regulation: Establishing and enforcing rules for global trade.
7.
Cultural and Educational Exchange: Promoting global understanding and collaboration in education and culture.
8.
Global Infrastructure Projects: Such as planet-wide communication satellites or transportation corridors.
9.
Global Broadcasts: Planet-wide broadcasts coordinated with continental and union networks.
10.
Human Rights and Welfare: Establishing and enforcing global standards for human rights, labor, and welfare.
11.
Global Disaster Response: Directing and managing global disaster response efforts, especially those that affect multiple continents.
12.
Planetary leader represents the planet at the inter-planetary level.