“The vision of the New Eden is food forest communities where all of our needs can be met on site.” – Age of Peace.

So yeah to explain it a bit, the 1P is proven reserves. It says total is 298 Gb, that was in january. And we use about 30 Gb a year, so about 9.5 years at current consumption rates. ¹ Well 2P is probable reserves. 2PC is speculative. And 2PCX is dreamland.

But yeah, basically every barrel we get out of the ground in more expensive than the previous in terms of energy investment. We probably wont be able to finish harvesting 2P before it become uneconomical to use oil as fuel. As a source of plastics and such, it may still be worth while but probably not as an energy source.

Lke for example biofuel has EROI of like 4. We always had biofuels, but they weren’t enough for an industrial civilization. Tar Sands EROI 2.5, Shale and nuclear is 5, solar is 2 and wind is 3.

We need EROI of at least 11 to have an automobile based economy.

While Rystad Energy says that the speculative oil could be extracted I’m not sure they are factoring in EROI in their calculations of cost. Conventional oil peaked in like 2004, and shale oil, tar sands, and natural gas all need conventional oil in order to be extracted.

according to this EROI of world oil will dip below 11 by around 2030

” Given the current energy intensity of the US economy, this translates in a minimum societal EROI of approximately 11:1 ” https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421516302087

ah, I think this is where money is conflated with wealth. basically money is a fiction just numbers on a computer really, and can make an infinite amount of them. but natural wealth, like oil is a finite resource. So the actual nominal value of the oil doesn’t really matter so much, the point being that if the EROI is less than 11 then industrial civilization as we are used to it in North America can not continue the way it is. Cause there simply wont be enough fuel to put in all the cars, tractors, trucks, boats, etc.

But yeah, I don’t mean to imply it would necessarily be a ”crisis” but rather a gradual change. Like due to increased fuel prices, there has already been 15So we are likely to simply see more of the same. We are already in ”scarcity industrialism” wheras before we were in ”growth industrialism” where people come up with new ways to use fuel. in ”scarcity industrialism” people come up with ways to conserve fuel.

The first things to decline would be optional industries like tourism. Some people may decide they can’t afford to fuel their car and transition to having a bicycle instead, etc.

That will continue until only essential services have fuel, like tractors on farms, and trucks for delivering food. Eventually that will also come to a halt. but hopefully by then we will have had some kind of land redistribution measures so all people could all have enough land to grow their own food, firewood and clothing.

After scarcity industrialism comes to a close, i.e. fossil oil/tar can no longer be economically burned as a source of energy. Then we’ll transition to a salvage economy, where the biggest energy resources would be the energy contained in the building materials of all that by now useless infrastructure, such as apartments, high rises, and suburbs – since they don’t provide people enough land to grow their own food. So those houses and building would be dissassembled and the metals and such would be reproccessed to make knives, axes, joints, horse shoes, bicycles, and whatever else is in demand during the salvage economy era. It could last for a while.

After the salvage economy, then it turns to what John Michael Greer calls the ”ecotechnic future” where we will produce things in a sustainable way based on renewable resources, including biofuels, hydroelectric, windpower etc.

That said, I don’t believe ever in history of Earth have we had such a smooth transition, mostly due to greed and hoarding by plutocrats who want to hang onto their unreasonably large land holdings, which eventually is wrestled out of their cold dead hands, but unfortunately simultanesouly destroying the prior order of nobility/aristrocracy/government which was unable to adapt to the new situation. Though there is a first time for everything, And I’m sure smooth transitions have happened on many planets before and we can help co-create a smooth transition in our community, leading by example, helping people cultivate ”all is well and will be well” facing facts and geophysical limits with aplomb and adaptation, glorifying the one infinite creator, and walking the path of joy.

1 Contact

Andrii Logan Zvorygin
Can find more food forest information on our website
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lyis@liberit.ca
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