# Final System Interpretation

## Integrated View

The model hierarchy is now a layered macro system rather than a single-variable oil forecast.

1. Liquidity impulse: GM2 leads oil momentum.
2. Market pricing layer: stocks and oil respond to growth/risk conditions.
3. Physical economy layer: energy use anchors industrial activity and GDP.

## Final Interpretation

Global M2 is the strongest leading financial signal for oil-price momentum. Stocks mostly reflect risk appetite and growth expectations, adding context rather than improving the locked oil model. Comparative inventory describes the physical oil-market state and helps explain deviations from the GM2-implied price path. Energy consumption anchors real activity, while GDP records the measured economic outcome. Rising GDP per unit of energy shows efficiency and structural change, while the continuing high correlation between energy use and GDP shows the economy remains physically grounded in energy throughput.

## Practical Reading

- Use GM2 to frame the oil momentum impulse.
- Use comparative inventory to judge whether physical oil conditions amplify, dampen, or contradict that impulse.
- Use SP500 as a risk/growth context variable, not as an independent oil forecast upgrade.
- Use energy and petroleum consumption to anchor the real-economy layer.
- Use GDP as the measured outcome, with GDP per energy tracking efficiency and structural change over time.